Of Bullets, Bureaucrats and Broken Signals: The HSR Train May Yet Redeem the Wait

 

When news surfaced that China had tested its new-generation CR450 trains, social media went into hyperdrive. Facts and fiction whizzed past each other faster than the trains themselves. The wildest claim? That China had achieved a speed of 896 kmph. Well, no — this isn’t a MagLev. The CR450 runs on wheels, and wheels doing 896 kmph would be less “train” and more “missile on holiday”.

In reality, the 896 kmph was the combined relative speed when two CR450s crossed paths during testing; the highest actual speed clocked was 453 kmph. Still, the train’s planned operating speed of 400 kmph will make it the fastest wheel-on-rail service on Earth. (China’s record-holding 432 kmph MagLev, after all, floats above the rails.) Even at 400 kmph, the feat is awe-inspiring — and, for us Indians, a little painful. For while China streaks ahead, our own Mumbai–Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail (HSR) project has spent nearly a decade still trying to leave the station.

While India had debated and negotiated, China built the largest High-Speed Rail (HSR) system of the world, laying over 46,000 km of high-speed tracks, carrying nearly three billion passengers annually. As their trains whizzed past, ours continued to run on excuses.

It took us years to understand the obvious: our demography and distances are close to China’s and HSR isn’t a luxury. It’s a necessity — to shorten travel time, decongest cities, generate jobs, and spark new urban growth. It’s also among the cleanest transport modes ever invented. Who knows, even Greta Thunberg might have given it a grudging thumbs-up.

I confess: I’ve been among the mockers, often deservedly so. Even at a recent interview during the IRRE exhibition on October 15, I too described our HSR journey as a “khichdi” — a stew of mixed ingredients, half-cooked and over-seasoned. Those interested can go through my blogs referenced in the end along with the video on CR450 and the interview mentioned above.

For decades, India’s policymakers debated whether high-speed rail was too “elitist” for a poor country, as if a train running at 300 kmph might bruise our socialist conscience. Committees were formed, studies commissioned, and shelves filled with reports that gathered dust at speeds rivalling the bullock cart. Meanwhile, countries like Morocco and Indonesia, middle-income ones not drowning in riches, quietly joined the fast lane.

Then came 2015. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greenlit the Mumbai–Ahmedabad HSR. A 98,000-crore project, 80% funded by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Reportedly made possible by the great vibes between our PM and Abe, then Japan’s PM, it felt like India had finally decided to trade the chug for a glide. The project wasn’t just about speed; one would think that it was also meant to convey a message of self-belief.

But optimism soon derailed and the first HSR project became a saga of delays. Land acquisition hit political turbulence in Maharashtra. COVID-19 halted Japanese consultants, who improved upon “work from home” to make it “work from Tokyo.” Design changes followed, costs doubled to nearly ₹2 lakh crore, and recently, even the Indian Railway's (IR's) National High-Speed Rail Corporation Limited (NHSRCL) couldn’t commit to a completion date to the Parliamentary Committee, concerned, no less. For a project meant to epitomize speed, its progress moved at the pace of a train stuck behind buffaloes.

When the Maharashtra government changed hands, construction revived, but only to face fresh hurdles. Japanese suppliers quoted astronomical prices for trains and signalling systems. IR, never short on jugaad, decided to strike its own path: develop an indigenous 280 kmph train. It was an ambitious move, seemingly born of cynicism, but welcome nonetheless. This brave move, however, did not browbeat Tokyo in reducing the price of their trains. To drive home the message, IR also opted for a European signalling system as a temporary measure, which even invited disbelief and ridicule; some, however, did give a polite hint that monopoly pricing cuts both ways.

What followed was the tunnel tale. Massive boring machines made by Germany’s Herrenknecht in Guangzhou for the 21-km underground stretch from BKC to Shilphata got trapped at a Chinese port in 2024 amid supply-chain restrictions imposed by China. The metaphor was too tempting: our high-speed dreams, literally stuck underground.

Japan, perhaps seeking to mend fences, offered two Shinkansen trains free of cost for testing and data generation. Perhaps a pre-emptive move rather than an act of generosity, and it raised more questions than it answered. IR had already announced plans to procure the latest Shinkansen model, which is still under development and expected only by 2031. The question, however, looms if we were unable to negotiate a deal of current model trains, how will we able to arrive to an acceptable price for futuristic trains?  

Meanwhile, the debate refuses to die down: should we run indigenous 250 kmph trains on infrastructure designed for 320 kmph? Will European signalling work seamlessly with Japanese rolling stock? Are we stretching ourselves too thin by announcing new HSR corridors—Delhi–Lucknow-Varanasi–Howrah, Chennai–Bangalore–Mysore, Delhi–Chandigarh-Amritsar, Mumbai–Hyderabad—before even the first one takes off?

Following the Prime Minister’s recent visit to Japan, it was expected that the path would become clearer. The outcome is not in the public domain. The mood in the Railway Ministry hints at renewed purpose but without the Japanese and the narrative seems to be shifting.

The stranded tunnel-boring machines have arrived in India following the détente with China, construction is gathering pace, and roughly 325 km of viaducts and 400 km of piers now stand ready.

Meanwhile, IR has loosened Japan’s grip on the project. The signalling contract has gone to a Siemens–DRA Infracon joint venture, bringing in a proven European system that costs a fraction of Japan’s offer. The system should be ready by 2029. For a country still shaking off colonial hangovers, this quiet shift from the East to the West feels almost poetic.

Some experts see no issue in operating Japanese trains on European signalling, citing Taiwan’s HSR as precedent. Taiwan runs Shinkansen trains with signalling designed to meet European interoperability standards, allowing bi-directional operation. Detractors, however, recall the integration hiccups that arose from mismatches between Japanese train systems and European operational logic. Taiwan’s case was a hybrid: Nippon Signal Co. of Japan provided the core ATC and train protection system, while German firms supplied switches and training. The overall architecture followed European norms, and while there were many teething troubles, the system now works seamlessly. Still, one can’t help but ask: why buy trouble if it can be avoided?

The indigenous HSR train, designed for 280 kmph, is expected to roll out by 2027 and enter service by 2028. Even at a capped 250 kmph, it will mark a milestone, a proof that “Make in India” can also mean “Create, Manufacture and Move fast in India.” For the 320 kmph version, global tenders may well be expected soon. If Europe delivers what India could not convince Japan to do, 2029 could be the year India finally joins the high-speed club. Many experts, however, opine that it is some time before tunnelling work can start and only part of the stretch can be opened by this time. Nevertheless, if by some cosmic intervention, this roadmap aligns neatly with the general elections of 2029, then so be it. After all, nothing concentrates bureaucratic and engineering minds like a good electoral deadline.

The Railway Minister recently announced an ambitious 7,000 km of dedicated passenger corridors by 2047, built largely on homegrown technology — for trains, signalling, and control systems. It’s an audacious goal, but perhaps just the kind of leap the Amrit Kaal vision demands. This alone would not mean much unless, instead of announcing a plethora of corridors, a more focused approach is adopted to choose two corridors for an early finish, say by 2033, which in itself is not an impossible task.

Ideally, of course, we’d have liked an all-Japanese system — trains, signalling, and infrastructure, built to Shinkansen standards. But as the proverb goes, the best must not become the enemy of the good. Given the strained equations with Japan, a hybrid path — Japanese civil works, European signalling, European+Indian trains — may be the most pragmatic route forward. I recently wrote about this in Hindu BusinessLine (referenced in the end) and this blog is actually an extension of the same.

Beyond the humour of missed deadlines and diplomatic dance lies a sobering truth. China built its first HSR line in 2008; within fifteen years, it rewrote the geography of travel. India began dreaming around the same time. Today, we’re still clearing land, signing contracts, and debating signalling systems.

Yet, progress is progress. The Mumbai–Ahmedabad line may still be years away from its first passenger run, but its success — even partial — will matter far beyond one corridor. High-speed rail is more than a transport project. It’s a statement that India is ready to trade inertia for innovation, hesitation for velocity. For too long, our trains have stood as metaphors of endurance. It’s time they became symbols of aspiration.

If this project, in whatever final form — 250 or 320 kmph — can prove that India can design, fund, and operate a truly world-class system, it will have done more than connect two cities. It will have connected us to the very idea of speed — something our democracy, bureaucracy, and public works could all use in greater measure.

And so, Shinkansen may or may not meet Siemens and the bullet train may be only crawling toward daylight, perhaps we may take comfort in the Bard’s ambivalence: take your pick from these immortal words.

“Better three hours too soon than a minute too late” 

(Ford, The Merry Wives of Windsor)

or

 “Wisely and slow. They stumble that run fast.”

Friar Lawrence, Romeo and Juliet

Whatever the speed of execution, a fitting reminder that even on the rails to speed, wisdom must still drive the engine.

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References:

 

China CR 450

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/9nqicHgUWZY

 

My earlier blogs on our HSR

https://anindecisiveindian.blogspot.com/2025/05/indias-bullet-train-high-speed-higher.html

 

https://anindecisiveindian.blogspot.com/2025/01/bullet-dreams-and-media-acrobatics.html

 

The interview which attracted good views:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V27bTmAFxy8

 

My Hindu BusinessLine article

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/high-speed-rail-on-a-different-track/article70213765.ece

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