Indian Railways in 2024 (part III): Grand Plans, Grim Realities

 

 

I had mentioned in the part II that we would talk about big ticket projects of Indian Railways (IR) in the concluding part III of this blog series. But beware, recalling Helena from the bard’s All’s Well That End Well, “...Oft expectation fails most and most oft there Where most it promises, and of it hits Where hope is coldest and despair most fits”, we may be worse off, with expectation getting belied in both hopeful and hopeless situations.

So, this is the concluding part of this blog series on the performance of IR in the year 2024. The links for Part I and II are referenced at the end.

Big-ticket projects

We are constantly bombarded with updates on the percentage completion of high-profile projects, yet nearly all of them remain mired in inordinate delays. Be it the, Dedicated Freight Corridors (DFCs), J&K rail line, Vande Bharat Sleeper and other versions, High-Speed Rail (HSR), Pamban bridge, station redevelopment, track upgrades for 160 kmph operations and enhanced safety, implementation of Kavach, elimination of train waiting lists, or export strategies—none seem immune to this pattern. A closer look at successive announcements reveals a glaring truth: firm completion dates are either conspicuously absent or belong to a past that’s long gone.

J&K Line: The Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Link (USBRL), a lifeline for connectivity, national security, and the emotional value of true integration of Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian Union, has languished in sluggish progress for nearly two decades. Hopes were high that purposeful execution from 2023 would lead to the line’s grand opening in 2024, complete with breathtaking visuals of trains running from Delhi to Srinagar. However, the current outlook is somewhat encouraging, with February 2025 almost a certainty. A critical 62-km stretch between Katra and Sangaldan, home to the awe-inspiring Chenab Bridge—the world’s highest rail bridge—has finally been cleared by CRS, after being plagued by technical snags that had been stalling this much-anticipated achievement. 

Vande Bharat variations: It took tremendous resolve and an unyielding effort by a passionate team at ICF during those heady 18 months between 2017 and 2018 to craft Train 18, a beacon of national pride. Put into operation in 2019 as Vande Bharat express, the project has been the PM’s favourite and nearly 65 such trains are in service. The incremental public perception from more VB seater trains for the government is meagre now, and as the leader of the prototype project, I have been advised that incremental perspectives generated from writing more on them may also be limited. Nevertheless, I always maintained that after 40-45 day-trains, IR would struggle to deploy them profitably without a sleeper version to replace Rajdhanis and other fast overnight trains. As the sleeper version was delayed excessively, IR keeps deploying the existing model sub-optimally and the consequences have now become glaringly evident. Even as the average speeds keep falling, unlike the initial services, at least 22 of the sixty odd origin-destination pairs now in service suffer from poor patronage. The Sleeper version which has seen multiple ‘launches’ since March 24 has finally been tested for commercial operation even as ICF has found glaring quality problems in the prototype. It is hoped it shall be deployed in commercial service in February 2025.

There has been an inexplicable hype around Vande Metro with the ministry fashioning it as a train with a maximum speed of 130 kmph, designed to connect cities within a radius of 100–150 km. Two such trains have been built, essentially mimicking the features of the Vande Bharat but with space for standee passengers, no pantry equipment, and a configuration accommodating 280 passengers, of which 100 are seated. While it boasts these tweaks, it comes with a steep price tag compared to its humbler cousin, the MEMU. Even as the ticket prices are kept lower than those of the Vande Bharat but higher than MEMUs, filling up these trains might be a Herculean task. Unsurprisingly, this has been the case with the first Vande Metro in service between Ahmedabad and Bhuj. The real solution, hiding in plain sight, was the humble MEMU with underslung electrics—designed at ICF in 2018. A true underdog story, this prototype faced a rollercoaster of delays. It featured Vande Bharat-style underslung equipment, skipped the frills, added air conditioning, and came in at just 60% of the cost of the Vande Metro. 

As for Vande Bharat, the chatter about its 'versions' is often misleading. Whether it’s V1, V2, V3, or beyond, these iterations are simply variants of the trusty day-train designed by Team ICF over six years ago. What’s being marketed as transformative are just minor incremental changes—a few added frills here and there—on the same platform that’s been tested at 180 kmph and cleared for 160 kmph. It’s akin to rebranding the good old Ambassador car through its Mark I to Mark V phases, with little more than cosmetic upgrades.

Globally, aluminium-bodied trains are the gold standard—lightweight, energy-efficient, and visually appealing. India’s existing stainless-steel coaches for LHB and Vande Bharat trains are already optimized to the limit, and any significant weight reduction can only come from switching to aluminium. A promising attempt to adopt such trains was made in 2018 but ended in fiasco. More recently, a tender to procure 100 aluminium-bodied Vande Bharat trains was floated but later scrapped for inexplicable reasons. The dream of aluminium-bodied trains has once again been shelved, and the silence around reviving the project is deafening.

High-Speed rail: Every day, there’s a new headline trumpeting progress—a pillar cast here, a station building nearing completion there. Yet, the reality is starkly different. A project originally slated for completion by 2021-22 is nowhere near the finish line and is unlikely to be operational before 2028-29. The proposal to launch a truncated section between Surat and Bilimora by 2026 adds to the absurdity of the situation. Compounding the delays is the recent news that IR will not import high-speed trains from Japan due to the exorbitant prices demanded. Instead, India now plans to design and build its own trains capable of speeds between 250 and 280 kmph. While the ambition to develop indigenous high-speed trains is commendable, expecting them to be ready in time for this project is overly optimistic, if not outright unrealistic.

The HSR system has been meticulously designed for Shinkansen trains, leaving little room for alternatives. Rather than indulging in brinkmanship, India must engage in meaningful negotiations with Japan. An indigenous high-speed train project, noble as it may be, is unlikely to pressure the Japanese into lowering their prices. Meanwhile, the project becoming a financial albatross burdening the exchequer looms large, with costs ballooning to nearly twice the original estimate.

By the way, hoping to design and build a 280 kmph train is good but it needs committed leadership and resolve and not bombast; One can travel faster than light, but only in imagination so a comic diversion for you here:

There was a young lady named Bright 

Who could travel faster than light

She set off one day 

In a relative way

And returned the preceding night 

Recently, yet another baffling piece of news surfaced regarding the tendering by IR of a European ETCS-Level II signalling system. Coupled with the earlier developments, this prompted me to adopt a tongue-in-cheek approach towards the publication—as a symbol but meant for all publications that never seems to question IR on its grand proclamations. I trust the readers will take it in the right spirit.

https://anindecisiveindian.blogspot.com/2025/01/bullet-dreams-and-media-acrobatics.html

Pamban bridge: This iconic 2-km-long sea bridge with a 72-metre vertical lift and hailed as a modern marvel of railway civil engineering, was poised to be inaugurated this year. A successor to the historic bridge opened in 1914, it carried lofty expectations but is under cloud now as the concerned Commissioner of Railway Safety has slammed it angrily as a “bad example” of construction with “glaring lapses from planning to execution.” While a reluctant clearance might see it opening to traffic before March 25, and news items may be appearing the bridge is in fact a great design, the project’s lustre has already faded, tarnishing what was touted as a shining feather in India’s engineering cap.

Station Redevelopment: After decades of grand announcements about railway station redevelopment, with tangible outcomes limited to Gandhinagar, Habibganj, and Byappanhalli, we now have the Amrit Bharat Station Scheme—an ambitious plan to revamp 550 stations across IR. The critical question remains: will these stations be functionally efficient, or will they merely dazzle with glitzy facades and cosmetic embellishments? True efficiency hinges on factors such as seamless entry and exit, smooth boarding and deboarding, controlled platform access, robust passenger information systems (PIS), and impeccable hygiene standards. While significant funds have been earmarked for the initiative, it is still early days; aside from Ayodhya and Cuttack, no project has yet been fully realized. Take New Delhi station as a prime example. Positioned as the natural flagship and one of the busiest stations in the country, its much-touted transformation into a world-class transportation hub—complete with state-of-the-art facilities—has been stuck in a loop of retendering. This persistent delay casts doubt over the execution of similar projects nationwide. For now, it seems prudent to adopt a wait-and-watch approach, hoping that this ambitious scheme doesn’t become yet another chapter in the long saga of unrealized railway dreams. 

A related question is why the PPP model struggles to succeed in railways, despite its extensive use in airports, ports, and highways. While the model has its own limitations, the real concern is this—without a viable PPP framework, how will these grand edifices be maintained when IR’s working expenditure already exceeds its revenue? Allocating resources for upkeep would be a daunting challenge, and the consequences of poor maintenance will soon become all too visible. 

Rail electrification and Green Railway: IR is poised to achieve a significant milestone by electrifying nearly 100% of its rail network by next year, positioning India as a global first to do so as no other major railway network has gone beyond 80%. This achievement is commendable for reducing dependence on fossil fuels but it begs the question: has this rapid progress outpaced necessity, leaving approximately 5,000 diesel locomotives, valued at approx. ₹30,000 crore, idle or underutilized?

The lack of a clear strategy for these surplus assets is disconcerting. While there is speculative enthusiasm about exporting these locomotives, the prospects are bleak. Neighboring countries with Broad Gauge (BG) networks may absorb no more than 100 locomotives over the next five years—and that too hinges on their willingness to purchase used equipment. Economically advanced BG nations like Argentina, Brazil, and Chile are unlikely to consider second-hand diesel locomotives. Conversion to Cape Gauge for African markets might dispose of only a small fraction. Even developed nations would balk at the sheer wastage of such high-value assets, whatever be the benefits of electrification. Adding to the opacity is the absence of transparent reporting on the savings achieved through this ambitious electrification. In this context, the announcement that IR plans to retain 2,500 diesel locomotives for disaster management and strategic purposes seems like an attempt to find virtue in a costly misstep. It raises a fundamental question: what kind of disaster scenario would justify keeping such a large fleet of powerful 4,000–6,000 hp locomotives on standby? The rationale is unclear and appears more like a retrofitted justification for poor planning.

Meanwhile, the broader narrative of green railways also warrants scrutiny. While electrification advances sustainability goals on paper, it does so with a glaring irony—India's power generation remains heavily reliant on coal and other fossil fuels. This creates a "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) situation, where emissions are shifted rather than eliminated. A recent study by TERI, a leading think tank advising the government, highlights the railway’s untapped potential in decarbonizing transport, especially freight. The study underscores a grim reality: despite ambitious plans to increase the rail freight share to 45% by 2040-41, it could plummet from 26% today to a mere 8% by 2070-71 without aggressive policy interventions. Unfortunately, such interventions remain largely conspicuously absent.

In this context, the drive for 100% electrification, while laudable on the surface, risks being exposed as a costly green mirage. It’s imperative for IR to address these inconsistencies and align its ambitions with practical, sustainable outcomes.

Higher speed capability on trunk routes: Upgrade of Delhi-Mumbai and Delhi-Howrah sections to permit speeds up to 160 kmph to enhance capacity and cut down travel time is a work progress for years and many deadline of completion have passed. Even today it is not clear if the work would be completed in 25-26.

Hyperloop: IR is the national rail network of a large country and instead of being a follower everywhere, it is imperative that it chooses at least a couple of technology arenas where it can be a leader. Hyperloop, for example. Hyperloop test track of 410 meters has been built by IIT-Madras' Avishkar Hyperloop team and TuTr (incubated startup) with support of IR; this indigenous project is a good step but the fruits would take considerable time before any tangible results. Meanwhile, should IR not tie up with global company in the field and try to be the first to build the first Hyperloop section in the world to be operated commercially, particularly as financing is not a problem what with IR being flush with government grants.

Hydrogen trains: About the futility of project, the less said the better. Suffice it to say that I have already covered it in details in this blog:

https://anindecisiveindian.blogspot.com/2025/01/how-much-of-this-hydrogen-is-gas-irs.html

In summary, despite substantial budget allocations and ambitious goals, Indian Railways faces serious lack of delivery, systemic issues and low morale of its officers that hinder the realization of its modernization and performance objectives. The time to act reform its working is now or else the huge investments would go waste without any significant improvement in working and image of railways.

…

Part I: Indian Railways in Review Part I

Part II: Indian Railways in Review Pat II