India’s Bullet Train: High Speed, Higher Hiccups

 

The idea for this blog hitched a ride on a curious paradox—India’s High-Speed Rail dreams gliding on the promise of bullet-like velocity, but hobbling forward at the pace of a bullock cart with a limp. The immediate trigger was an invitation from Mint/Hindustan Times to speak on a panel with two fellow railway domain experts—stalwarts both of them—on the prospects of High-Speed Rail (HSR) in India.

 

Here's the published piece that emerged from that discussion:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/genesis/highspeed-rail-driving-economic-growth-and-sustainability-in-india-101746593803612.html

 

The article captured the sanitised slice of what I said, and I extract the essence here for context:

 

There are global instances where high-speed trains have cannibalised air travel, dramatically reducing the carbon footprint. Just look at China—10 billion passenger trips annually, compared to about 8 billion in India—and they’ve built an eye-popping 45,000-kilometre high-speed rail network, the largest in the world.

 

As someone who had the privilege of having led the team behind India’s first semi high-speed train—the Vande Bharat Express—I’ve always believed that High-Speed Rail (HSR) is not just about faster trains; it is about faster progress.

 

HSR has the potential to slash travel time, rev up economic growth, and genuinely uplift the standard of living for those in smaller towns and cities. And let’s not forget—rail is a far cleaner mode of transport than road or air. For a country aiming at a future that is sustainable, connected, and inclusive, HSR is not a luxury—it’s a necessity.

 

That’s the shining side of the coin—the one that glitters with promise. If done right, HSR can stoke India’s economic engines, ease the pressure on our urban centres, bridge regional disparities, and give real teeth to our climate commitments. In short, HSR could well be the steel spine of twenty-first century India.

 

But what was left unsaid in the article (and also in the YouTube release) is perhaps more telling than what made it in. Presumably omitted for being unflattering to the Indian Railways (IR) babudom, it includes two issues I have written about before, issues that continue to gnaw at the soul of our ambitions.

 

First, the tragic abdication of HSR train design—what should have been nurtured with pride at Integral Coach Factory (ICF), Chennai, the womb of Indian train design—was meekly handed over to Bharat Earth Movers Ltd (BEML), as though innovation were a burden best outsourced. And second, a delightfully absurd tale from the land of leaked narratives of IR: a journalist merrily reporting a 'plan' to make fixed signalling infrastructure portable. Yes, portable! One half expects the next innovation to be detachable tracks with backpack straps. (References to these earlier blogs are at the end for those who enjoy comedy laced with policy.)

 

Frustrated by the slow train of decisions, I penned a sharper summary of what was not published, focusing on the delays and dithering surrounding HSR projects. That piece was picked up, thankfully in full, by The Hindu BusinessLine and can be read here:
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/low-speed-on-high-speed-rail-project/article69572423.ece

 

To paraphrase an original line I dare attribute to the Bard, had he been watching this tragicomedy unfold, inspired somewhat from “The lady doth protest too much, methinks”, Gertrude in Hamlet and the second age analogy of a schoolboy creeping like a snail by Jaques in As You Like It, “Methinks our bullet train doth crawl too much, like a snail in chains, dreaming of wings while drowning in red tape.”

 

Let me now lay out the main points that were perhaps swept under the rug—but got their day in the light in the said piece:

 

HSR systems operate at speeds above 250 kmph with significant improvements in travel time, lowering carbon emissions linking economic hubs and encouraging healthy urbanization away from major cities. Once limited to developed nations like Japan, France, Spain, and Germany, HSR is now widespread — China leads with 46,000 km of track, and even countries like Morocco, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan have joined in. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Iraq are planning theirs too. The notable outlier is the USA, where strong road and aviation lobbies have stymied progress.

 

India has debated the merits of HSR since the 1990s, often ignoring global examples that suggest India is not exempt from its benefits. The example of China, with similar demographics and travel patterns, is a valid comparator.

 

Thanks to PM Modi, the dithering ended in 2015 with the sanctioning of the 508 km Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR project, estimated at ₹98,000 crore. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) was to fund 80%, with the rest coming from the Centre and the concerned states.

 

Since then, the story has soured. Completion, once targeted for 2022, is now unlikely before 2030, with full operations only by 2033, and the cost ballooning to around ₹2 lakh crore. The National High-Speed Rail Corporation Limited (NHSRCL), responsible for the project, cites reasons like poor land acquisition in Maharashtra, the pandemic, and the shift to viaducts due to terrain. In March, they told a Parliamentary Committee they couldn’t even provide a reliable timeline or cost — despite nearly half the civil work being done.

 

The handling has clearly been rather inept. Procurement of rolling stock stalled due to sky-high quotes from Japanese firms. An independent consultant backed Indian Railways’ (IR) view that the quotes were excessive, but Japan didn’t budge — déjà vu from a similar deadlock over Japanese locomotives for the Western DFC, where IR eventually walked away. Here, however, we are locked into the Japanese system and should have anticipated tough bargaining.

 

Now, IR plans to develop its own trains, ordering from BEML. But jumping from 180 kmph to 280 kmph trains in one leap defies sound technological progression. Even if successful — as we hope — the trains would still run at a sub-optimal 250 kmph on infrastructure designed for 320 kmph.

Amid this chaos, Japan has offered two Shinkansen trains, free, by 2026 to test India’s environmental challenges like heat and dust. Rather than clarity, this move adds another layer of confusion.

 

A similar roadblock is the issue of the high cost of the signalling system. NHSRCL decided to tender for an alternative system to be used until the latest version of the Japanese train arrives later. They floated a tender for the signalling and telecommunications contract with a 7-year deadline; a 7-year validity for a fixed infrastructure project is highly unusual. Alstom–L&T and DRA–Siemens JVs are the two bidders, and it appears there was a significant disparity between their quoted prices. Word is also circulating that the quote from the DRA–Siemens JV is — believe it or not — nearly one-tenth of the Japanese quote. It will be interesting to see how this contract is awarded and executed. Meanwhile, discussions reportedly continue with Japanese manufacturers regarding the receipt of Shinkansen E3 and E5 trains for evaluation and to identify necessary adjustments for the E10 trainsets currently under development, which are to be procured and deployed between 2030 and 2031.

 

Even as the Mumbai-Ahmedabad project languishes, the net is cast wide with never-ending surveys for multiple routes such as Delhi–Varanasi–Howrah, Chennai–Bangalore–Mysore, Delhi–Amritsar, and Mumbai–Hyderabad. It is time for more decisive action — two shorter stretches like Chennai–Bangalore and Delhi–Amritsar should be sanctioned immediately and completed within six to seven years.

 

While the media shenanigans continue — the latest being a piece that declares India’s bullet train project is picking up pace after delays, with partial operations expected by 2026 and full completion by 2028 — such claims are laughable. But then, aren't we all used to this kind of misleading hype?

https://www.financialexpress.com/business/railways-explainer-bullet-train-journey-nearing-destination-3852558/

 

I have highlighted what appears inexplicable — and perhaps I am missing something that the Ministry sees clearly. But even so, common sense suggests that securing a better, fairer deal with the Japanese remains the most prudent path forward. High-Speed Rail projects are not vanity ventures; they are vital instruments for knitting together regional economies and transforming intercity mobility in India. If operations somehow begin by 2030, it will be despite the muddled handling so far — not because of it. What’s needed now is not just incremental progress, but a decisive shift toward more transparent, strategic, and committed execution. The promise of high-speed connectivity deserves nothing less.

…

 

Blog References for those interested:

 

On legacy, pride and ownership:

https://anindecisiveindian.blogspot.com/2024/09/guard-your-legacy-icf-why-surrender.html

 

The ludicrous news making Signalling fixed infrastructure portable:

https://anindecisiveindian.blogspot.com/2025/01/bullet-dreams-and-media-acrobatics.html

 

The latest news:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/infrastructure/bullet-train-project-bets-on-european-signalling-technology-talks-on-for-japanese-shinkansen-trainsets/articleshow/121307817.cms