Whither goest thou, Indian Railways, in 2024 and beyond?

Whither goest thou, Indian Railways,

in 2024 and beyond?

Sudhanshu Mani

2023 has come to a close and evaluating the performance of Indian Railways (IR) reveals a varied landscape. While strides in infrastructure stand out, the year has witnessed underwhelming freight loading and financial outcomes, falling short of anticipated growth and projections.

On the positive side, significant progress has been made on the two Dedicated Freight Corridors, which had long suffered delays. These corridors, nearing completion after some focused execution in recent years, signify a crucial milestone in enhancing freight transport. Despite cost escalation and challenges in loan servicing affecting competitive pricing, belying the promise of significant reduction in logistics costs, the progress on these corridors after a decade of uncertainty is commendable.

The Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Link (USBRL), vital for connectivity and national security, has continuously faced sluggish progress. However, purposeful execution in 2023 have resolved major hurdles, and the prospect of the first Delhi-Srinagar train running soon indicates a positive shift.

The High-Speed Rail project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad faced delays due to administrative issues with the previous state government of Maharashtra. Recent progress with the change in the state government, however, signals a more promising future, with the line expected to be fully operational by 2028-29.

The increased deployment of Train 18/Vande Bharat also marks a positive change in India's higher-end travel landscape. With a mere six in service as 2022 ended, this year has seen the number rise to 50 of them transforming the way India’s intercity travel. What with IR’s own production supplemented with that from other agencies like BEML, Titagarh+BHEL and TMH+RVNL, one is looking at 500 VBs in operation in another 5 years or so. The patronage has, by and large, been good indicating that there is a clear space for fast and comfortable trains even with higher fare.

 

Negatives, nevertheless persist. Some of the Vande Bharat  trains were deployed on political merit; these trains run with poor occupancy either due to lack of clientele or insignificant cut down of travel time, e.g., Bhopal-Jabalpur, Bhopal-Indore and Jodhpur-Sabarmati,. The empowerment given to zones to cut down fare in case of poor occupancy is neither here nor there. It is no rocket science that deployment should be made after traffic surveys. This would be even more important in 2024 as continued deployment of day trains may not find takers. Challenges like delays in development of the Sleeper version and sluggish track upgrades for higher speeds remain unaddressed. With the dropping of the tender to acquire 100 Aluminium version of Vande Bharat, a big downside has been that the promise of Aluminium tarins has again been belied after a mess was made by the shenanigans and indecision by the ministry in respect of Train 20 in 2018-19.

 

Looming over this progress is the enduring concern for enhancing the dignity and comfort of the common man. A puzzling contradiction emerges: even as non-AC unreserved coaches are dwindling in numbers on trains, the introduction of Amrit Bharat trains exclusively for non-AC passengers further complicates the situation. What seems absent is a definitive vision aiming to offer AC travel options for all types of travelers by the conclusion of Amrit Kaal which, in my opinion, is an essential prerequisite for a country achieving the status of being ‘developed’.

 

The question of track upgrade to higher speeds has become very relevant too as the work on raising the speed of Delhi-Howrah and Delhi-Mumbai sections to 160 kmph remains a work of tardy progress.

 

Safety concerns have surged due to several serious accidents, underscoring the critical need to prioritize rail safety and infrastructure enhancements. The Balasore incident particularly stains the otherwise improving safety record of IR made over the past five years with measures such as the closure of all unmanned railway crossings and better track maintenance. A series of subsequent accidents—such as the Delhi-Kamakhya Express derailment near Buxar, fire incidents on the Patalkot Express near Agra and the Delhi-Darbhanga Superfast Express near Etawah, as well as the severe collision between two trains near Vizianagaram, have marred this progress, resulting in fatalities and injuries.

 

The focus for 2024 must pivot decisively toward enhancing rail travel safety, encompassing upgrades to tracks and Signaling systems. Financial resources are not lacking, as the Central Government has consistently allocated substantial funds for capital expenditure to the IR. Yet, the sluggish pace in installing Kavach, an innovative system developed by IR engineers, raises questions. The delay attributed to the Ministry's contention that efforts to expedite Kavach deployment were hindered by constraints in industrial capacity is misplaced. The responsibility for augmenting capacities through collaborations with the industry lies squarely with the IR and such excuses explanations will not suffice if IR aims to substantially improve its safety track record.

 

IR’s commitment to 'green' operations via electrification stands in stark contrast to the fate of its extensive fleet of nearly 5000 active diesel locomotives. Questions persist regarding the rationale behind pursuing Hydrogen trains amidst ongoing electrification efforts.

 

The buzz surrounding airport-like stations overlooks crucial aspects of a railway station's core functionalities, failing to prioritize them akin to an airport.

 

The recent announcement to introduce 3,000 passenger trains aims to eliminate waiting lists, projecting an increase in passengers from 8 billion to 10 billion annually by 2027. However, the vague specifics of these trains raise concerns about oversight regarding capacity constraints and lack clarity on implementation.

 

The speed of freight trains were reduced in the year following doubts about the BMBS systems on wagons. While the BMBS story is a sordid one, and can be debated elsewhere, on technical managerial merits, IR must find ways to not only restore but enable increase speeds;  freight train operation at 75 kmph for loaded and 100 kmph for empty rakes.

 

The implementation of IRMS, aimed at dismantling departmentalism, faces substantial hurdles evidenced by low recruitment rates, creating a scenario where the cure seems to be worse than the disease. The ongoing internal competition for top positions via department-centric appointments sharply contrasts with the lack of enthusiasm shown by Civil Services aspirants toward IRMS, rendering it their least preferred choice. With only 90 out of 150 vacancies filled, a considerable number may remain unoccupied as successful candidates likely opt for alternative services. Adding to the challenges, the time-honored bastion of railway training, NAIR, has suffered due to encroachment by Gati Shakti Vishwavidyalaya. While the latter's intent might be noble, it seems to have undermined NAIR, instead of aspiring to evolve into a premier institute in the transport sector. All these HR factors, consequently, appear to have caused the morale of railway executives to plummet to an unprecedented low.

 

Financially, despite a burgeoning economy, rail freight and revenue growth have lagged significantly behind projections, hovering at a CAGR of 3 to 4%. This poses considerable challenges for long-term sustainability of IR and its investment plans. In an economy expanding at nearly 7%, one would anticipate rail freight and total revenue to grow by at least 10%. However, Indian Railways has been failing to meet even its pension obligations from its own resources, let alone the failure to generate a surplus for investments, raising the pressing question of how long the Central Government can continue funding this deficit from the GBS.

 

There are numerous other aspects—the nitty-gritty—that can't all be covered in a blog. Before Polonius from the bard’s Hamlet starts admonishing me for ignoring that “...brevity is the soul of wit...”, I stop here. As we approach 2024, IR must steer toward a clear strategic direction, capitalizing on initiatives such as Gati Shakti and NLP to significantly boost freight loading and revenue performance. Aligning with a well-defined purpose becomes paramount for ensuring sustained growth and development amid these challenges.*

…

 

* It is indeed a tall order but experts of various hues have been giving their opinions and I had also chipped in with my friend, Ravi Babu, IRTS Ret., in a series in The Hindu:

 

29^th Oct. IR’s revenue problem

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/the-indian-railways-revenue-problem/article67474218.ece

 

30^th Oct. Easing the transport of cargo https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/easing-the-transport-of-cargo-by-railways/article67478033.ece

 

31^st Oct. How cargo transport can be improved 

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/how-cargo-transport-can-be-improved/article67482100.ece