Are the Vande projects in doldrums?

 Are the Vande projects in doldrums?

Sudhanshu Mani

Optimism is not entirely based on reason. Apart from obvious positive signs, hypes, premature declarations and announcements, sentiments and belief in a certain growth trajectory also matter. The budget and market watchers would have us believe that, thanks to another bumper enhancement in budgetary support to Indian Railways (IR), the Capex in more advanced trains, new safety features, station upgrades, High-Speed Rail, new routes and multiple tracks, the Capex level in railways will top Rs 3 lakh crore. This may actually happen, given the support that the Central government is committed to provide to IR for growth of the economy as a whole and reduction in logistics costs, in spite of IR’s poor financial performance if  viewed in isolation. Add to that the hype that the ministry creates is hardly revisited to examine the actual progress on the ground, you get heady level of optimism in rail sector; a sector which was once largely soporific now commands many multi-bagger stocks outperforming nearly all the other segments on the market.

Let us talk only of the Vande Bharat (VB) experiment here. Thanks to the unprecedented push given by the PM himself and general excitement among the travelling public, VB Express has become a symbol of progress. Although no major upgradation has taken place in the design, there is a saffron/orange colour version too which looks stunning. Increased deployment of Train 18/VB also marks a positive change in India's higher-end travel landscape. With a mere six in service as 2022 ended, this year has seen the number rise to 50 of them, transforming  India’s intercity travel.

Multiple VB trains can be sighted at large stations and the cover image tells the story of a transformation more than words can.

Today, VB is the ubiquitous icon of IR, with its images splashed all over flyers, magazines, calendars, backdrops in events, promotional videos, just about everywhere. In addition, people use the symbol for promoting just about anything, let alone railways, some of which are brought out in this image:

What with IR’s own production at ICF, and perhaps at RCF and MCF soon, supplemented with that from other entities like BEML, Titagarh+BHEL and TMH+RVNL, one is looking at 500 VBs in operation in another 5 years or so. The patronage has, by and large, been good indicating that there is a clear space for fast and comfortable trains even with higher fare. 

But does the future hold promise with realization of a barrage of announcements related to VB? Negatives, nevertheless persist. Some of the VB  trains were deployed on political merit; these trains run with poor occupancy either due to lack of clientele or insignificant cut down of travel time. While many VBs enjoy good patronage, there are some which absolutely do not and should not have been deployed at all; e.g., Jalna – CSMT, Jamnagar–Ahmedabad, Udaipur City–Jaipur, Jodhpur–Sabarmati, Gorakhpur–Lucknow, Dharwad-Bengaluru, Indore-Bhopal-Nagpur, Bhopal(RKMP), Jabalpur-Rewa, Delhi Cantt-Ajmer, which register occupation level of around 60% or even lower. The empowerment given to zones to cut down fare in case of poor occupancy is neither here nor there. It is no rocket science that deployment should be made after traffic surveys. This would be even more important in 2024 as continued deployment of day trains may not find takers. 

IR decided to split a 16-coach train into two 8-coach versions to kill two birds with one stone: a cynical strategy to increase the number of trains to meet, or at least near-meet, the PM’s target of 75 VBs by 15^th August 2023 and second, somehow show good occupancy on unpopular routes. This retrograde step shows that enhancing the number of trains has assumed primacy, giving a short shrift to the serious concerns of loss of capacity in a saturated network on which paths are expensive and which should be exploited fully to run trains with as many coaches as possible. In any case, as time has shown, this has not helped that much. 

It is indeed pleasing to see that the train has such visibility and popularity that politicians pine for it in their constituency. It is also gratifying that the PM himself is there to launch each and every train. So far so good, but beyond that, IR must look at the possible patronage of the train before introducing it on a route. I had always maintained that after 40/45 day-trains, IR would find it difficult to deploy the VB meaningfully and remuneratively unless it had a sleeper version ready to replace Rajdhanis and other faster overnight trains. Quite expectedly, chickens have come home to roost and the stark reality stares IR in the face. 

The sleeper version of VB, which was a work in preliminary progress at ICF way back in 2018. But along with the stoppage of work on VB, this was also abandoned. This much-needed version exists only in announcements since 2019;  that it would be a reality soon, currently pegged for 2024. We have to wait and watch but in any case, the prototype which may surface in mid-2024, would not have any pride and ownership of ICF infused in it but the stamp of BEML on it. 

We have become acclimated to the VB numbers hype by this time - 75 trains, 400 trains and recently in 2023, 8000 coaches in coming years. I do carry the cross of having got the train made so I shudder to think that I would be the one to say, “no more, not yet.” The fact is that the train has visibility, favourable optics and appeal whereas commensurate upgrading of track has no glamour. Track upgrade works for higher speeds remain mired in sluggish progress To exploit the full potential of the train, its acceleration and travel time, infrastructure must be upgraded post haste. 

Exploitation of full potential means trains with maximum speed of 160 kmph and average speeds ranging above 100 kmph. The table above shows that the first VB between Delhi and Varanasi remains the fastest with the average speed of 96 kmph whereas only two of whatever has followed, go above 90 Kmph. The novelty has seen to good occupation but the travellers are not really getting the full value for money in a train with higher fare but a meagre reduction in travel time. Even the track upgrade to 160 kmph capability, along with Kavach, on Delhi-Howrah and Delhi-Mumbai sections, continues to be a work of tardy progress. The only saving grace is the development of a lighter metal fencing which has brought down the cases of cattle getting run over in the Mumabi-Vadodara section. 

Another important aspect is building on the initial design to improve it to world standards. That does not seem to be a priority. The dropping of the tender to acquire 100 Aluminium version of VB is a big downside and the promise of Aluminium tarins has again been belied after a mess was made by the shenanigans and indecision by the ministry in respect of Train 20 in 2018-19. 

There is also this inexplicable hype about Vande Metro. The ministry has fashioned it as a train which I understand is a 12-coach or 16-coach formation with maximum speed of 130 kmph to cater to cities located within a radius of around 100 km, making four to five trips in a day and that the train would have world-class amenities. The train will have most of the features of VB but with space for standee passengers without pantry equipment. But ask the ministry, (sadly nobody does) to give the example of two target pairs of cities. Lucknow-Kanpur? Mumbai-Pune? Even if the ticket prices for this train will be lower as compared to VB, occupation would be a serious challenge. Those who travel in MEMUs today, pay one-fifth the price whereas it would be difficult to attract new clientele as even a seat is not assured and cut down in travel time is not in the offing as newer VBs have shown. To my mind the sister of Train 18, which was prototyped in 2018 and is under manufacture after a series of delays, the MEMU with VB type underslung equipment without frills but with provision of AC, would fit the bill better at 60% the cost. 

As you wonder what Vande Metro is, a new version is mooted for Mumbai suburban with all VB features except seating and toilets. A tender for 238 such 12-car trains was called by MRVC with an estimated price of around Rs 90 cr but it was soon kept on hold. Another overkill as the other sister of Train 18, which was prototyped in 2018 but only one such train is in service, the 12-car AC EMU with VB type underslung equipment without frills, would be more suited at approximately Rs 50 cr each.

I am asked to comment on VB version 1, 2 and 3 and so on and that stymies me; I look at the animal and find that that the same day-train that we designed and built more than five years ago, continues to be built with only some frills added here and there. We can only hope that more meaningful action in the Vande Bharat arena would emerge after the elections in 2024.

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