Vande Metro India's Newest Commuting Unicorn?

I stumbled upon an article titled ‘Get the Vande Metro routing right’ by Mr. Ramakrishnan T.S. published in The Hindu of June 28, 2024:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/get-the-vande-metro-routing-right/article68341444.ece

Now, this mythical beast known as the Vande Metro has been perplexing me for a while. I have ranted, raved, and even hosted a one-man puppet show about it. So, naturally, I dived into the article like a nicotine-deprived loser into a fresh pack of cigarettes. But before I dissect Mr. Ramakrishnan's words and add my two cents, here is a brief recap of my comedic journey with this elusive creature. 

There is this inexplicable hype about Vande Metro. The ministry has fashioned it as a train which, as I understand is a 12 or 16 coach formation, with maximum speed of 130 kmph to cater to cities located within a radius of around 100 to 150 km, making four to five trips in a day and that the train would have world-class amenities. The train will have most of the features of VB but with space for standee passengers without pantry equipment; I believe the interior features a wider aisle, so now a car accommodates 280 passengers and offers 100 seats. I believe two of these Vande Metro trains, crafted with care by the fine folks at ICF and RCF, have been sitting pretty for quite some time, eagerly awaiting their grand debut. This shouldn't surprise anyone since we also have more than 15 rakes of Vande Bharat trains ready for launch, some of them getting close to celebrating their three-month birthday. If you think that is a waste of ready-to-go trains, well, you're just a grumpy grumble-pants, all the optics and visibility lies in the inaugurations.

But ask the ministry (not that anyone really ever does) to name two target city pairs. Lucknow-Kanpur? Mumbai-Pune? Even if the tickets for this train are cheaper than those for Vande Bharat, filling those seats would be a Herculean task. The current MEMU travellers pay peanuts—about one-fifth the price. Attracting new passengers will be tough since even snagging a seat may turn out to be like winning the lottery, and significant cuts in travel time are not on the horizon as the newer Vande Bharats have already shown us that. In my opinion, the solution is the humble sister of Train 18, the MEMU, with underslung electrics, that we at ICF designed in 2018. This underdog was prototyped in 2018 and has faced a rollercoaster of delays. It sports Vande Bharat-style underslung equipment, skips the frills, but adds AC, all at 60% of the cost. Now, that is a budget-friendly makeover! 

People keep asking me to comment on VB versions 1, 2, 3, and so on. It is all the same train, tested at 180 km/h and cleared to run at 160 km/h. What is being cherry-picked to claim improvements? It reminds me of the good old workhorse Ambassador Mark I to V, which always makes me smile. I flip through ministry publicity material and these so-called versions, only to find that the trusty day-train designed by team ICF over five years ago is still rolling out with just a few added frills. Check the list of "new features" they have publicized, and you will see things like an extended toilet pan or a stink sensor in the loo. The emphasis on these imaginary versions screams a desperate attempt to claim non-existent technological upgrades. To be fair, the only notable improvement, in my mind, is the dazzling Saffron, or Orange, Vande, which does look pretty slick. So, is the Vande Metro just another desperate attempt to conjure up a new version out of thin air? Only time—and possibly a few more frills—will tell.

Now, back to the article which I enjoyed, mostly because it balanced criticism with a sprinkle of logic and a dash of positivity. Of course, I fully expect to be trolled by the relentlessly upbeat folks living in their fantasyland after reading only this much, but hey, maybe I missed something and need to put on my rose-coloured glasses. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports these trains would be introduced on five routes. Agra-Mathura (55 km), Delhi-Rewari (83 km), Lucknow-Kanpur (73 km), Tirupati-Chennai (141 km), and Bhubaneswar-Balasore (206 km) to begin with. Anyway, here is a terse brief with my comments in blue. 

It begins by quoting lack of patronage on some of the Vande Bharats as Indian Railways (IR) did not conduct a scientific identification of origin-destination (O-D) pairs with the potential of good occupancy and that IR should not make this mistake for Vande Metros. 

Goes without saying but the question is whether IR still knows as to what makes the mare go? 

The author says that air-conditioned Vande Metro with VB like features will fundamentally alter how people travel across distances of up to 250 km. With a max. speed of 130 kmph, 75-90 kmph average speed would be achievable and that numerous advantages would follow from this, like quicker travel times and pleasant travel. 

So far so good but a significant cut down in travel time would be possible only with reduced number of halts compared to existing MEMUs. I am not sure about this 250 km business, the ministry has repeatedly said intercity 100 to 150 kmph. 

The author reasons that because of much higher cost of manufacture and maintenance, IR can ill-afford to run Vande Metro trains at a rate comparable to that of the second class of currently running trains, particularly the MEMUs in the section. 

Yes, that has been my argument too. 

The author brings in the pricing of IR tickets that second-class travellers currently pay 45 paisa, 22 paisa, and 18 paisa a km on mail/express, ordinary, and EMU/MEMU trains, respectively. Whether these second-class passengers would be willing to switch to air-conditioned Vande Metro trains at a higher ticket price is a million-dollar question. Few Air-conditioning coaches of the suburban rail system in Mumbai have not yielded the expected outcomes. 

True, a big question? Moreover, with a network of expressways coming up, e.g., Lucknow-Kanpur from the said routes, will well to do passengers patronize the train, in which a seat is not guaranteed? 

The author then dives into the pricing of Mumbai's suburban services, where you can snag a monthly season ticket for ₹105 to ₹500 if you're okay with a sweat fest, or ₹650 to ₹3,150 if you prefer to ride in an air-conditioned haven; only 4% of local train warriors switched from their non-AC saunas to the cool AC coaches in 2023. The outcome? Neither Indian Railways nor the passengers are seemingly winning here. The passengers get to play sardines in their infrequent AC services while non-AC rebels too sneak in for a taste of the good life. Meanwhile, RRTS RapidX shines as the gold standard for intercity travel over similar distances, though it comes with a much higher fare and a hefty bill for the government for building and running it.

 

Agreed. So, who on earth will cheer for Vande Metro trains, and at what fare? It remains a mystery. Comparing it to RapidX is like comparing apples to...well, very expensive oranges. At best, Vande Metro is like RapidX’s thrifty second cousin, twice removed.

The author then bowls a googly, pointing out that the Indian Railways has a recurring habit of not learning from its own mistakes. He suggests that a Sherlock Holmes-level analysis of demand projections for various potential O-D pairs before selecting routes for these trains would be wise. This would result in packed trains, optimized use of the limited services, and ultimately, higher revenue for Indian Railways. In other words, a win-win for everyone except maybe the passengers who is likely to prefer a bit more elbow room or a price which matches the present ones. 

Sure, it ends on a hopeful note, but then we crash-land into reality with the proposed deployment of these trains on routes like Delhi-Rewari (83 km) and Bhubaneswar-Balasore (206 km). At fares potentially five to six times the non-AC fare of MEMUs, it is like being charged luxury hotel prices for something only a shade better than a tent.

 

So, summarizing my newfound yet still developing wisdom, Mr. Ramakrishnan, I remain hopeful that you have an ace up your sleeve that will magically find its way to the ministry. Or perhaps the ministry itself has a secret recipe for success, and Vande Metros will become the surprise hit of the season. 

Just like à la Helena in the bard’s All’s Well That Ends Well, we may find that “...Oft expectation fails, and most oft there where most it promises; and oft it hits where hope is coldest, and despair most fits”, I have to say all this lest, I am forced to eat crow if and when the train succeeds, a proverbial escape route for the cynics of my tested and proven capabilities.

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