Hype, Hyper and Hyperloop

 

Indian Railways (IR) is frequently in the news for something good or something bad. For example, its freight loading is going up at  a rate which would translate into highest cumulative YoY incremental loading ever. One can say that it is not good enough given that Covid had affected things much worse in the last fiscal, but good it certainly is. It can also face brickbats for accidents, as it indeed has over the years, but its safety record in recent years has definitely improved. It comes for criticism for slow pace of large projects. So far so good.

 

Unfortunately, of late, IR is also in the news for unadulterated hype, with insipid, gullible, slothful and perhaps, venal Press and Media. I am talking of the so-called main-line media, not the ubiquitous on-line channels and YouTubers who, of course, are unmatched in spreading misinformation and building up inane announcements and fake observations into sensational news. Some hype is the order of the day but then going hyper, that is, to an extreme, about it with a whole lot of gullible people believing the announcements and the so-called news items is rather piteous.

 

Some recent ones have been about IR’s plans for Hyperloop, Hydrogen Fuel-cell based trains and Lighter Aluminium coaches with Articulated bogies and tilting, the following connect:

 

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/union-budget-indian-railways-likely-to-go-for-hyperloop-and-hydrogen-fuel-based-train-set

 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/railways-to-lay-thrust-on-new-technology-lighter-coaches/articleshow/88460925.cms

 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indian-railways-to-get-first-aluminium-coaches-by-early-2022-why-its-significant/articleshow/85297363.cms

 

I have already talked about Hydrogen Fuel-cell based trains (https://www.dailypioneer.com/2021/columnists/let-all-green-initiatives-not-be-just-gas.html) and Lighter Aluminium coaches (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k450lfY3fxg&t=1051s) recently. So, Hyperloop today! Is all the hyper hype just hype or is there some truth, or at least, some merit in it?

 

What is Hyperloop technology for trains and how is it related to Magnetic Levitation (Maglev) trains? Hyperloop trains are electrically-driven but they employ linear motors, which are a kind of motors "unwrapped" linearly. Magnets, or rather magnetized coils, are placed along the track with repelling magnets in the train’s undercarriage so the train sort of hovers above its guide-ways in a magnetic field. These superconducting magnets have powerful fields to lift, suspend and propel the train trains. Simply put, the polarity of the magnetic field changes such that those in front pull and those in the back propel forward the train at speeds much faster than conventional wheeled trains as the friction between the rail and the wheel is not an issue any more. But air drag, or wind resistance, which increases parabolically as speeds go up presents a factor limiting the speed. Hyperloop trains work on the same principle but in a sealed tunnels from which air has been sucked out near vacuum and air-craft like speeds become theoretically feasible and the speeds are governed more by the withstanding capability of humans to tolerate higher acceleration and deceleration.

 

It all started with Elon Musk, the Tesla and Space X magician, presenting his vision of the Hyperloop transport system, which would never crash and would be immune to weather’s vagaries. The idea he detailed envisaged passenger-carrying pods which would travel through long vacuum tubes at 1000 km/h or more with the added benefit that it could well be power-autonomous using solar energy and that while you need tremendous input of energy to accelerate the train to a high speed but after that the energy consumption is considerably reduced as the momentum itself can take it far at a high speed in the airless tube.

Elon Musk offered the concept for any entity that wanted to pursue it. Richard Branson of Virgin joined it with upfront investment and Musk’s Hyperloop One was rebranded as Virgin Hyperloop One, which is now rechristened as Virgin Hyperloop. Elon Musk also launched The Boring Company (TBC) which also aims to build intra-city loop transit systems, with eventual transition to Hyperloop-based transportation on inter-city routes. Other companies in the fray are HyperloopTT, a US-based start-up, which is working in China to build a test track, Hardt Hyperloop of Netherland, TransPod, a Canadian company and perhaps some more. There are many commercial and investment related issues, for example, the father of the concept, Elon Musk is inviting other to invest but he is not contributing major funds himself as he did in Sapce X, all Hyperloop companies are building the hype to boost their stocks and generate funds; yes, there are many intertwined issues but that does not impact the purpose of this blog.

Hyperloop is not operational anywhere in the world as yet. The only recorded proof of concept so far has been by Virgin Hyperloop at their test facility near Las Vegas when, after a series of unmanned tests, they ran a prototype pod in the first manned trial with two of their staff in November 2020 at a speed of around 172 km/h in a 500 meters long test installation. They have continued their testing with higher speeds and are expected to release results of manned trials at much higher speeds. Meanwhile apart from the frontrunner Los Angeles to Las Vegas Hyperloop, which appears to be in doldrums now, various companies have announced proposals for a number of routes like a track connecting Missouri’s largest cities, including St Louis and Kansas City, Abu Dhabi to Al Ain, Tongren city in China and host of other ambitious projects in Canada, Ukraine, France and South Korea.

 

Hyperloop proof of concept demonstration has so far confirmed the feasibility of the concept, as the pod travelled in the tube without grazing the inner wall of the tube and very fast acceleration, reaching more than 150 km/h within 6 seconds, far superior to that feasible on High-Speed Rail (HSR) or Maglev.

 

The following remain somewhat imponderable, and understandably so given that it is entirely expected for a revolutionary technology of this kind in the nascent stages of development:

 

·    Cost of building system for which estimates vary from $ 20 to 50 million per km; this small stretch for tests is certainly not even roughly indicative. If it is the former, it compares favourably with HSR but if it is the latter, but if it is the latter,  it is considerably higher than HSR

·  Transonic speeds in a very short time, let alone hypersonic speeds, which is the main thrust of its promoters and brings it in competition with airlines and not HSR, is not yet demonstrated. This, after all, forms the bedrock justification for a large project. The current research levels in Maglev technology shows that speeds of around 600 to 700 km/h are possible within a decade and Hyperloop must excel this in terms of possible speed to attract investors. To put it in perspective, picture an Indian scenario: Delhi to Mumbai in 90 minutes or Chennai to Bangalore in 30 minutes, arriving, conceivably somewhere in the middle of the city and not a faraway airport.

·  On achieving the  Transonic speed, the momentum then enabling operation at a relatively much lower energy cost. This is another this feature which makes Hyperloop very attractive and is touted as another important driver.

·  Safety of the proposed system is a near unknown at this stage. Will the issues of complete safety of passengers that arise as we build a system for 1000 km/h speeds be a dampener or at least push up the capital cost even further?

·   Regulatory mechanism for a system of this novelty would be a challenge

·   A counter to the argument of better suitability of a system of flying to airports and then taking short distance Maglev type journey to the heart of the city as in Shanghai, on short distances the advantage of Hyperloop over Maglev or HSR.

·  Hyperloop is proposed to be built on columns or tunnelled underground, so the risk associated with at-grade crossings are eliminated but will it require smaller rights of way as compared to Maglev or HSR?

·   The estimates for effort and costs involved in maintenance of a vacuumed tube system and the pods may go awry

 

What has happened in India so far? Branson pitched this concept to the government of Maharashtra as a solution for our transportation bottlenecks and signed a preliminary agreement in Mumbai for a Mumbai-Pune system. With the change in government, the project is good as dead. We also heard faintly of a Amravati to Vijaywada project. We have now heard of this announcement by railway ministry, that they were exploring possibilities of acquiring hyperloop technology for a demonstrative project to showcase its capabilities in the rail sector, barely a month after we had Dr. V. K .Saraswat, former chief of Defence Research and Development Organization and member of Niti Aayog declaring that Indian engineers had the capability to design and build our own Hyperloop system but since that R & D would take time, we should allow foreign companies to demonstrate Hyperloop in the country:

 

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/transportation/railways/allow-foreign-firms-to-demonstrate-hyperloop-tech-for-ultra-high-speed-travel-niti-member-saraswat/articleshow/87695036.cms

 

This statement may be politically correct but, otherwise it is, as the bard would say, “neither here or there”. Our R & D? Which organization would be entrusted to do it? DRDO? Will they not do better to concentrate in improving our capability in design and manufacture of Defence equipment, a field in which we are far behind the world? As for IR, their track record in assimilating even proven technologies is poor and so they can hardly handle a blue-sky project of this magnitude and complications.

 

What should be our way forward, then? India should enter headlong into the project through a special SPV created for the purpose and I state my case, with a caveat that the exact cost of the project, the ticket price and whether it would eventually be a toy for the elite alone is something I cannot answer today. Consider this:

·   Ignore the goings on in the developed world, and China, as nearly all of them have an efficient HSR and Hyperloop benefits are somewhat reduced if you already have HSR apart from the opposition generated by proponents of ultra-high-speed rail and even Maglev. In our case, our passenger railway system hibernates in 1970s and leapfrogging into something which would be far beyond the current world-technology, can bring its own benefits. United States is closer to our status in respect of passenger trains but they have their own automobile and airline lobbies. For once, India should plunge into something the world is still gearing up to invest in.

·    It may sound jocose but our procrastination and indecision can actually work to our benefit, as they have in so many fields of rail technology, propelling us to currency, or rather a state-of-the-art system more advanced than anything in the world, simply by jumping one level of intermediate technology. We debated about HSR for decades and it was only after the resolve of the PM that the first HSR is taking shape in India, albeit very slowly. A large country like India should take up projects with half-proven credentials, evaluate after completion and then take an informed decision for proliferation with the proof of the pudding. We debate, ad nauseum, giving undue space to those who are inherent doubting Thomases and reach nowhere except accumulating a pile of feasibility reports and draft DPRs.

·     Land acquisition may remain an issue, unlike for air transportation, as the entire Hyperloop stretch cannot be through tunnelled ways but so is our problem with HSR. The land requirement for Hyperloop may turn out to be smaller than that for HSR or Maglev.

·     Let us not be naïve enough to think that Hyperloop companies would come to India at very favourable terms to build a demonstrative system. Get real and leverage the might of our country to pitch in for a fully commercial, albeit medium-distance, Hyperloop project, say Mumbai-Pune or Chennai-Bangalore. Everyone wonders at the progress made by China in HSR and even Maglev but remember, they did not develop the technology themselves. The exploited all the majors in the field with the bargaining chip of hitherto unseen volumes and fast execution. In no time, they acquired the capability to do things on their own and forged ahead, dumping all their partners. We, used to the debilitating oxy-moronish Transfer of Technology regime, must  break free and realize our full potential through an imaginative contract which may give the Hyperloop companies a ripe field for proving their concept but also enable and equip us to chart our own course in future.

·  Last but not the least, all this may seem like a pipedream based on the hypothetical promise of Hyperloop. It sure is. But as Danny Wallace has said, “Sometimes it is riskier not to take a risk as otherwise all you are guaranteeing is that things will stay the same.”